The Florida Center for Nursing has released statewide workforce projections in its latest workforce report, indicating future shortages among Licensed Practical Nurses and Certified Nursing Assistants, according to its Florida Health Care Workforce Projections 2022–2037 report. The findings point to growing demand for these roles that is expected to outpace supply in the coming years, with shortages projected to emerge as early as 2026 in several regions of the state.
The projections, which analyze long-term supply and demand trends for multiple health care occupations, are based on population growth, workforce participation patterns, and utilization rates across Florida. The Florida Center for Nursing is a state-authorized organization that conducts nursing workforce research to inform education, policy, and planning decisions.
While the Florida Center for Nursing reports workforce projections by region rather than by individual city, several of the regions identified in the report encompass major population centers. For example, South Florida projections include areas such as Miami and Fort Lauderdale, while Central and West Central regions cover metropolitan areas including Orlando and Tampa. Northeast Florida projections similarly affect workforce planning in and around Jacksonville. The Center notes that regional variation is expected, reflecting differences in population growth, education capacity, and health care utilization across the state.
According to the report, both Licensed Practical Nurses and Certified Nursing Assistants are projected to face declining workforce adequacy over time, driven by a combination of slowing supply growth and increasing demand for health care services.
Projected Trends for Licensed Practical Nurses
The Florida Center for Nursing projects that the supply of Licensed Practical Nurses will decline slightly on an annual basis, while demand for LPN services is expected to increase steadily through 2037. As a result, statewide workforce adequacy for LPNs is projected to decrease significantly over the projection period.
The report estimates that LPN adequacy will fall from approximately 85 percent in 2022 to around 55 percent by 2037. Workforce adequacy reflects the ratio of projected supply to projected demand, with values below 100 percent indicating unmet demand.
The findings suggest that, without changes in education capacity, workforce participation, or care delivery models, Florida may face increasing challenges staffing practical nursing roles in long-term care, rehabilitation, and other settings where LPNs are commonly employed.
Certified Nursing Assistant Supply and Demand
Certified Nursing Assistants are also projected to experience workforce shortages over the coming decade. While CNA supply exceeded demand statewide in 2022, the report indicates that this surplus is not expected to persist.
The Florida Center for Nursing projects that CNA supply will decline while demand continues to grow, leading to statewide shortages by 2026. By 2037, the report anticipates severe Certified Nursing Assistant deficits across most regions of Florida.
CNAs play a critical role in long-term care facilities, home health services, and hospital support roles. The projected shortages reflect broader demographic trends, including population aging and increased demand for hands-on care services, particularly in post-acute and residential care settings.
Regional Variation Across the State
The report emphasizes that workforce impacts will not be evenly distributed across Florida. Regional projections show variation in both the timing and severity of shortages, with some areas experiencing workforce gaps earlier than others.
Urban and high-growth regions are expected to see particularly strong demand for entry-level and practical nursing roles as health care utilization increases. Rural and underserved areas may face additional challenges due to smaller training pipelines and reduced ability to attract and retain workers.
While the projections provide a statewide overview, the Florida Center for Nursing notes that local workforce conditions may differ based on employer mix, education access, and population characteristics.
Relationship to the Registered Nurse Workforce
In contrast to the projections for LPNs and CNAs, the report indicates that Registered Nurse supply is expected to grow at a rate that more closely matches demand through 2037. Statewide RN workforce adequacy is projected to remain near equilibrium, though regional differences are expected.
The divergence between RN projections and those for LPNs and CNAs highlights the importance of considering the full nursing care team when evaluating workforce capacity. Health systems rely on a mix of roles to deliver care efficiently, particularly in settings such as long-term care and home health, where LPNs and CNAs play central roles.
Implications for Workforce Planning
The Florida Center for Nursing's projections are intended to support long-term workforce planning rather than predict short-term labor market conditions. The organization notes that workforce trends can be influenced by changes in education capacity, policy decisions, economic conditions, and care delivery models.
For education providers and policymakers, the projected shortages underscore the importance of monitoring enrollment, completion, and retention trends in practical nursing and nursing assistant programs. For employers, the findings point to continued competition for workers in these roles as demand increases.
The projections do not account for potential future interventions or shifts in practice that could alter workforce dynamics. Instead, they provide a baseline outlook based on current trends and available data.
As Florida's population continues to grow and age, the report suggests that demand for nursing support roles will remain strong. The projected shortages among Licensed Practical Nurses and Certified Nursing Assistants highlight areas of the workforce that may require targeted attention to ensure continued access to care across the state.
Sources
Florida Center for Nursing publishes statewide health care workforce projections through 2037
Florida Health Care Workforce Projections 2022–2037 (Full Report)